I am an unabashed fan of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. I have read every word of every speech he has made since the war began. I have even written a book about him. I tell you that so that you know that my criticism of him in this article comes from a good place—from loyal opposition to a bad idea.
It has now been more than a month since Russia invaded Ukraine. Rather than surrender in a matter of days as predicted, Zelenskyy chose to stand and fight. Zelenskyy has been rightly compared to Washington, Reagan, and Churchill. I believe he is the right man for this moment in history.
Putin badly miscalculated on nearly every front because his worldview blinds him to strategic errors that were easily discernable from a Western perspective. He miscalculated militarily, economically, politically, and interpersonally.
Militarily, the war has been an unmitigated disaster. Russian soldiers suffered from low morale. The war has been waged on too many fronts. The army has been riddled with logistical issues. It never achieved the integration between air, land, and sea power, limiting its combat effectiveness. As Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby explained, “It appears as if a lot of these operations are being conducted in silos, not necessarily integrated across the force.”
Economically, Russia’s situation is getting worse. Recognizing naked aggression, nearly all western countries have imposed sanctions designed to cripple the Russian economy. In addition, major American and European corporations pulled out of Russia. The Russian stock market closed for nearly a month due to fear of a sell-off. The Ruble has lost 40% of its value. The economic squeeze nearly caused Russia to default, and Russia has sustained long-term injury to its economy.
Politically, the situation is just as bad. President Putin has had to take drastic measures to prevent his citizens from finding out exactly what was going on in the “special military operation” in Ukraine. To that end, the Duma (Russian Parliament) passed a law penalizing purveyors of “fake news” with up to 15 years in prison. President Putin also shut down Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram in Russia, though it should be noted that he still has a Twitter account, and he continues to tweet.
Zelenskyy was perhaps his worst miscalculation. He never expected President Zelenskyy to stand up to him. But Zelenskyy has, through his word and his example, solidified the resistance that has upended Putin’s plans.
Putin is in great peril. Even if he wins, which is increasingly improbable, it will be a pyrrhic victory. He has become the world’s pariah; he is currently one of the most hated world leaders in U.S. history.
In contrast, since the war began, President Zelenskyy has, done almost everything right. This is remarkable because this novice politician had a 25% approval rating before the invasion.
As a professor who teaches leadership, organizational change, power and influence, and related courses, I give Zelenskyy high marks for leadership. From the outset, he cast a clear vision: victory. He sent an unambiguous message to his people that they needed to stay and fight. More importantly, he set the example by staying in Kiev.
Shortly after the invasion, he posted a video of himself walking around on the streets of Kiev, and he uttered the words: “Ya tut” (translated “I am here.”). In the more than seventy video messages that he has posted since the invasion began, he has continually updated his people about significant events, offered encouragement and support, called for aide from the rest of the world, and called for peace.
His communications have been superb, hitting all the high notes. When he spoke by video to the British Parliament, he quoted Churchill. When he spoke to the Canadian Parliament, he asked Prime Minister Trudeau how he would explain to his son why bombs were falling on Edmonton, why Vancouver was blockaded, and why the CN Tower in Toronto was struck by a missile attack. These mental images personalized a war that was far, far away.
When he spoke to the United States Congress, he invoked Pearl Harbor and 9/11.When he spoke to Germany, he explained that Russia was building the wall again, this time in Ukraine.
When he spoke to Israel, He linked Nazi aggression to Russian aggression. He also quoted Golda Meir who said, “We intend to remain alive. Our neighbors want to see us dead. This is not a question that leaves much room for compromise.”
When he spoke to Italy, he likened Kyiv to the ancient city of Rome and invoked the Pope’s comments. When speaking to the French, he framed his message through their motto of Liberty, equality, and fraternity. In short, in every venue, he made the case that what was happening in Ukraine was not just about Ukraine, but about all of us. He argued that if Russian aggression remained unchecked, it would become a larger issue. He appealed for help on the grounds that their fight is actually our fight. He has been masterful as communicator-in-chief.
The Strategic Mistake
His words have rallied the majority of the world to his cause. Both Zelenskyy’s rhetoric and actions have been brilliant, but on Sunday, 20 March 2022, he made his first significant strategic mistake. He announced a ban on 11 political parties with ties to Russia. He said:
Any activity of politicians aimed at splitting or collaborating will not succeed. But it will get a tough response.
That is why the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine decided… Given the full-scale war waged by the Russian Federation and the ties of some political structures with this state, any activity of a number of political parties during the martial law is suspended. Namely: “Opposition Platform – For Life”, “Shariy Party”, “Nashi”, “Opposition Bloc”, “Left Opposition”, “Union of Left Forces”, “State”, “Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine”, “Socialist Party of Ukraine”, “Socialists” Party, “Volodymyr Saldo Bloc”.
This was a terrible idea for a number of reasons. First, “Opposition Platform – For Life” holds 44 seats in the 450-member Ukrainian Parliament, and together, these 11 parties received upwards of 20% of the vote. Moreover, all of the leaders of each of these parties have condemned the Russian invasion.
At the same time, Zelenskyy nationalized all TV stations, arguing the need for a “unified information policy.” Why did he do it?
He may very well be concerned about a fifth column inside Ukraine. That is understandable, but these laws appear to be an overcorrection. After all, Ukrainian sympathy for Russia is at an all-time low. The Russians have absolutely devastated the regions that they are claiming to liberate. It will be generations before Ukraine looks to the East again.
It may be a rookie political error. Zelenskyy is fairly new to politics. Perhaps it is part of the Soviet hangover. Why would we expect him to think about rights in the same way that Americans do when this is not his experience? Zelenskyy was 13 when the Soviet Union collapsed, and while he is a reformer with clear free-market tendencies in some regards, he also has statist tendencies in others.
The world has rallied to Ukraine’s cause because they have witnessed one-sided aggression, flagrant injustice. Zelenskyy must be careful not to alienate the West by undermining the pillars of democracy.
Nietzsche wrote, “Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.” I am not sure that this is what is happening with Zelenskyy, but perhaps he shares some of Putin’s worldview-induced blindness. At a minimum, it appears that in his zeal to defend his land, he has a blind spot.
Nevertheless, this is Zelenskyy’s first strategic mistake. Let’s hope it is his last. He cannot afford to make too many.
Dr. Darin Gerdes is a management professor at Charleston Southern University and the host of the Leadersmith Podcast. He is the Author of I Need Ammunition, Not a Rideon Amazon Kindle.